Immigration is the only way Belgian population will remain stable, forecast shows

The latest figures on demographic trends in Belgium from national statistical office Statbel and the Federal Planning Bureau forecast that the only way the country’s population will remain stable is through immigration.

The report found that migration continues to be the main driver of population growth and that population stability is attributed mainly to two factors: the eventual positive stabilisation of the international migration balance (people moving into and out of Belgium) and a negative natural growth rate (lower birth rate than death rate).

“Behind the evolution in the number of births are large regional differences,” Statbel wrote in its findings for 2024.

“In Flanders, approximately 61,900 births were registered (a 2.6% decline). Just over 32,900 births were registered in Wallonia (a decrease of 6.6%). Finally, the Brussels region recorded just over 13,900 births. Relatively speaking, Brussels registered the sharpest decline in the number of births of all regions (-7.7%) compared to the same reference period.”

At the same time, according to the study, immigration will reach a level of 165,000 people per year by 2070 and emigration will reach 134,000 people, meaning more people would be moving to Belgium rather than from Belgium.

“You have to realise that if we closed Belgium completely and lived in isolation, we would have fewer Belgians every year very quickly,” Bruno Masquelier, a demographer at UCLouvain, told RTBF.

“This is not a surprise and it is the case in many other countries. For example, the growth of the European Union is also negative. In Belgium, what awaits us is a demographic slowdown that is being gradually held off by this migratory influx.”

The forecasts were finalised before the conclusion of the negotiations for the formation of the new federal government and therefore do not take into account the possible effects of forthcoming measures to restrict migration to Belgium.

But Masquelier noted: “There are always political intentions, and then translation into action. The literature clearly shows that migration policies don’t always have the desired effects. Sometimes there are even quite a few adverse effects, and stricter control will not necessarily result in less immigration.”

When it comes to the country’s declining natural growth rate, Masquelier again pointed out that the trend is broader than just Belgium.

“In Germany, Italy, Japan, Ukraine and China, the natural growth rates are also negative,” Masquelier said. “Belgium will therefore not be in an exceptional situation.”

The birth rate in Belgium has been falling since 2010. By the mid-2030s, the average number of children per woman is forecast to stabilise at around 1.6 – below the 2.1 mark considered to be the "replacement" level.

While there are overall fewer births, life expectancy is increasing, leading to a growing population of elderly people. Life expectancy in 2070 is expected to reach an average of 89.8 years for women and 88.1 years for men.

“If we divide the population into three age groups (under 18, 18-67 and 67 and over), more or less the only age group that will continue to grow in Belgium is the 67 and over group,” Masquelier said.

With these factors considered, Statbel predicts the population of Belgium will increase to 12.9 million inhabitants in 2070, compared with 11.7 million in 2024.